There is no shortage of hype around AI coming for jobs, and while the U.S. labor market has begun to sputter, hard evidence of AI-related job losses is scarce.

Geoffrey Hinton’s message on a recent podcast about artificial intelligence was simple: “Train to be a plumber.”

Hinton, a Nobel Prize-winning computer scientist often called “the Godfather of AI,” said in June what people have now been saying for years: Jobs that include manual labor and expertise are the least vulnerable to modern technology than some other career paths, many of which have generally been considered more respected and more lucrative.

“I think plumbers are less at risk,” Hinton said. “Someone like a legal assistant, a paralegal, they’re not going to be needed for very long.”

  • Formfiller@lemmy.world
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    9 hours ago

    Too bad most trade unions are literally white supremisist groups. Speaking from actual 10+ years experience in a blue state. Most of the Union men support trump and get huge government subsidies to continue the racist white men only nepotism racket.

    • gAlienLifeform@lemmy.world
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      9 hours ago

      Yeah, a century of cops beating and murdering anti-racist labor rights organizers has that effect on people. Literal survivorship bias.

  • MagicShel@lemmy.zip
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    13 hours ago

    hard evidence of AI-related job losses is scarce

    This needs to be shouted from rooftops. As much as I think AI is a useful tool, all of these scenarios suggesting AI is going to radically change the world must be viewed through the lens of convincing investors to invest more money and businesses to spend more on AI. There is some value there in helping people do some tasks more efficiently, but AI can’t currently wholesale replace people and I don’t think LLMs ever will.

    Don’t change your career path due to AI (I’m sure there are exceptions, but by and large).

    • phoenixarise@lemmy.world
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      4 hours ago

      Agreed. This is just a fad bubble that will pass. I’m looking forward to seeing those businesses that laid off their workers for AI in the near future. 😂

    • jaykrown@lemmy.world
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      13 hours ago

      I read stuff like this and wonder, have you ever actually tried to use AI to do something productive? Like for instance, write a complex SQL query in a large database?

      • MagicShel@lemmy.zip
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        11 hours ago

        Yes. I use AI every day at work.

        write a complex SQL query in a large database?

        This is not a great use case for AI generation because it combines long multiple select queries with having to know the DDL of all the relevant tables. It might get you an approximation that needs tweaking, but if you work with SQL every day I’m going to bet you’d do a better job at this in less time than it takes to have AI help.

        Things it’s bad at:

        • ingesting lots of code, and spitting back out a “fixed” version of that code.
        • Writing complex logic in one fell swoop.
        • Writing code that has a bunch of externalities to consider like exactly where you store user scripts on a given Linux installation or writing stuff that works locally AND in the CI/CD pipeline, etc.
        • Adding code to a codebase that contains a bunch of custom packages and non-standard designs

        Things it’s good at:

        • “Complete all the swagger annotations for http status codes 400, 401, 403 <…>”
        • “Review the standards provided in corp_api_design.md and validate conformance.”
        • “Describe the necessary endpoints, components and functionalities for a user service.” edit result and ask for review
          • “Given this architecture, stub out a controller, service, and any request and response objects.”
          • edits result and request review
          • “Add validations to <class>” repeat as necessary
          • “Given this controller stub, service stub and response object, write a controller unit test using JUnit5 and MockMvc.”
          • “Given <stub, etc.> implement <function>”
          • “Given <Entity/ies> and <ResponseDTO> create a mapper from entity to response. Use builder pattern and implement null checks.”

        Any of these results may need massaging by hand. The AI can’t do the whole job, especially at once. But it can write bite sized pieces, sometimes even mouthfuls, very quickly. It’s not instantaneous but it’s faster than doing it from scratch. For me.

        But I get the most value out of having my work instantly reviewed. I miss stuff. I typo stuff. Yesterday it caught in seconds a spot where I’d put a similarly named but wrong class and had struggled for 30 minutes to see it. It noticed the pattern established in similar code wasn’t followed once I passed the unclear IDE error and code.

        I know my job well but my execution is imperfect. AI excels at noticing those variations and imperfections from the rest of the code or industry standards.

        • jaykrown@lemmy.world
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          10 hours ago

          That’s fair, so your productivity has increased and error rate has lowered due to responsible usage of AI.

      • some_designer_dude@lemmy.world
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        12 hours ago

        I use it daily, and I liken it to creative directing a fairly junior developer who has very little creativity or ability to think outside the box I build for it.

        That said, I also remember when computers themselves were new and people were equally excited and equally skeptical. AI will improve. A lot. People will lose jobs, and jobs will be obsoleted in the same way nobody’s apprenticing as a type founder or letterpress mechanic.

        I’m not too worried about there just suddenly being nothing for anyone to do anymore.

        • sidelove@lemmy.world
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          12 hours ago

          I agree. As usual, the answer lies somewhere in the middle. The investor class says it’ll replace everything, and pushback on the internet says it’ll replace nothing. Junior developer is definitely an apt comparison, and while they have gotten a little more coherent, my eyes have started to glaze over with the release every new model claiming to be “the one”.

          The one thing the internet is bang on about is the intellectual property theft. Funny how all those laws and penalties that the likes of Disney and the MPAA pushed with millions of dollars of penalties for even small infractions never land when it’s investors gaining and true creatives losing.

        • jaykrown@lemmy.world
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          11 hours ago

          That’s an awesome take, finally someone with some experience and sense rather than “AI bad”.

          That said, what’s realistically happening is one person who’s already in the industry is using AI, meaning that a new hire is no longer needed because their productivity increased.

          What’s left for that computer science graduate that would have been the new hire that never happened? Blue-collar jobs indeed. There is much work to be done, just not the work that they had hoped for by going into +$80k in debt.

          • MagicShel@lemmy.zip
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            10 hours ago

            I don’t think juniors are going away. Maybe one less position or intern on a team. The thing is AI never gets any better, people do. Also a junior using AI might just be more productive while learning the core skills. A proposition I’m banking on by taking a new position leading a team and helping them leverage AI.

  • fmstrat@lemmy.nowsci.com
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    10 hours ago

    “Someone like a legal assistant, a paralegal, they’re not going to be needed for very long.”

    Someone’s not reading the news about judges finally throwing out sanctions.

  • Perspectivist@feddit.uk
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    9 hours ago

    As a self-employed general contractor-handyman-plumber, I feel pretty secure about the future of my work prospects. If anything, an AI that could reliably deliver correct information would be immensely useful in my line of work, given how I run into technical questions on a daily basis.

  • Devolution@lemmy.world
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    11 hours ago

    Liberal arts majors will be just fine. The world will always need child protective services workers and barristas.

    Jobs AI can’t really do well currently.

    Source: I’m a CPS worker and business is booming…for all the wrong reasons.

    Edit: I detest AI because it makes people lazy. Anyone ever read a court document created by a 20 something who uses chat gpt? It’s a horror show.

    • MasterBlaster@lemmy.world
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      11 hours ago

      Whether AI is actually good enough to replace jobs is irrelevant. Executive leadership believes it is, and thousands of jobs were already eliminated this year.

      If one person can do the work if 10 people with the help of AI, why would a bean counter keep the other nine, all else being equal?

      CoPilot generated code for me that would have taken a couple hours to write from scratch. I’m a software engineer. Let that sink in.

      My career has seen a steady drop in employment since 2022. The statistics are out there for anyone to find.

      • MagicShel@lemmy.zip
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        5 hours ago

        FYI that employment drop has way more to do with a Trump tax law that was delayed to take effect that year than AI. I’ve been hit hard there myself, spending probably 7 total months unemployed since that time. Based on recruiter spam, I think it’s actually ticking up a bit these days.

        But you’re right that the hype is distorting things by making C-suite execs believe dumb things.

  • trane69@lemmy.world
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    13 hours ago

    It’s so funny that it is podcasters and ceos saying this shit. AI could probably do those two specific jobs better than humans. And literally nothing about our lives would change if AI replaced all of them.

  • Doug Holland@lemmy.world
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    8 hours ago

    I’m joyously retired now, but office work was my entire ‘career’, and it was sweet and easy. Anyone with a decent command of English and numbers, anyone who could write a coherent sentence, prep a tidy and accurate report, and had a decent eye for catching other people’s errors and not making too many of their own, could have steady work. And every company needed good office help, so when one boss pissed you off, you could easily find another. The work was less than fascinating, sure, but the pay was OK, the chairs were comfortable, muscle aches were rare, and I never came home particularly sweaty.

    AI can do that work now. It won’t do it as well, as accurately, and won’t be able to spot and solve problems on the fly or sooth ruffled customers, but it’ll be “good enough,” so with AI careers like mine will be lost in time, like tears in rain.

    • MagicShel@lemmy.zip
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      6 hours ago

      So I kinda agree with you, but there’s a big piece missing from your conclusion.

      Over time you would come to know the business, the customers, the unwritten expectations, and you could point out or correct problems that had nothing to do with grammar or spelling. You could look at something and say “$100000” in sales is a digit too low because you know rightly what sane numbers will be. You can pick up donuts on your way in because you saw a meeting on your boss’s calendar.

      An AI can do none of that. I’m not an AI hater at all, but I can’t think of a single job where AI could completely replace an actual person. If your office needs one or two assistants, they can’t replace them with AI. If they need five, maybe they could get by with four. Or maybe the office can just take on more work.

      I’m not saying there will be no jobs lost, but the numbers will be much lower than most folks fear (or hope, for those on the other end of the stick). I think the hype is more disruptive than the AI.

  • OpenPassageways@lemmy.zip
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    10 hours ago

    I was actually thinking it would be sweet to train as an electrician as a backup to my software engineering job, since it’s something that seems interesting to me. However, it doesn’t really seem doable. It would be cool if there was some equivalent to a coding boot camp for trades.

    It would be sweet if instead of college there was a four year program where you could be trained in the basics of plumbing, electric, carpentry, automotive, landscaping and do various internships (apprenticeships) then decide when you graduate what you want to do.

    • A_Union_of_Kobolds@lemmy.world
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      9 hours ago

      If you’ve got some flexibility in your schedule you may be able to pick up some helper work from a solo electrician. I could use a hand often but im not at a point to hire someone full time.

      I like that idea a lot. We’ve definitely gotta do something better about onboarding new tradespeople bc right now (especially in red states with low union presence) it, uh, sucks lol

  • jaykrown@lemmy.world
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    13 hours ago

    “Popularity” isn’t the right word. The title should be “Blue-collar jobs are safer while AI threatens office work”. The word “popularity” has the connotation that somehow people want to do those jobs more, they don’t, it’s just what’s available.

  • taiyang@lemmy.world
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    8 hours ago

    My old 6 month contract “research” job a year and a half ago had plenty of people worried about this and that was AI in infancy. But they were right, not because AI was good but because most of them had such menial tasks that AI could do them. It was mostly reporting to faculty and staff easy to look up figures that you could literally read off a dashboard.

    I actually created a script to do my job for me, no AI needed, just filled out a yaml file with a Google form stating the parameters needed and R would pull from SQL everything needed. I was even going to add code to insert it into a document, but my contact wasn’t renewed because of a weird beurocratic technicality so I passed the script to the only other competent person working there.

    In short, our jobs were 90% automateable with a script even before AI was a mainstream fear. Also a quick search shows they changed most of their staff since then so eh.

  • CompactFlax@discuss.tchncs.de
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    13 hours ago

    The amount of corporate compliance training a plumber has to complete is pretty much zero. Etc. I’ve considered moving to trades but I’ll lost out on too much earning at my age.

    Unfortunately there’s a fair bit of private equity moving into the trades.

  • MasterBlaster@lemmy.world
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    11 hours ago

    You used an incorrect phrase there, let me fix it: “hard evidence of AI-related job losses is scarcely reported.”

    You are welcome. :)

      • MasterBlaster@lemmy.world
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        6 hours ago

        Don’t even care enough to do some basic research yourself? Lazy thinking is one reason we are in the huge clusterfuck we are experiencing as a society.

        https://www.cbsnews.com/news/ai-jobs-layoffs-us-2025/ In case you can’t motivate to click the link, here’s the money shot:

        For the first seven months of 2025, rising adoption of generative AI technology by private employers accounted for more than 10,000 job cuts, according to a report released this week by Challenger, Gray & Christmas. The outplacement firm lists AI as one of the top five factors contributing to job losses in 2025.

        If you think that’s a fluke,

        https://www.cnbc.com/2025/07/20/in-job-losses-ais-role-may-be-bigger-than-companies-say.html

        And if you are one of those guys who considers these to be “woke” fake news sources, how about Forbes?

        https://www.forbes.com/sites/richardnieva/2025/07/17/ai-tech-layoffs/

        AP: https://apnews.com/article/ai-layoffs-tech-industry-jobs-ece82b0babb84bf11497dca2dae952b5

        A new report Wednesday from career website Indeed says tech job postings in July were down 36% from their early 2020 levels, with AI one but not the most obvious factor in stalling a rebound.

        ChatGPT’s debut in late 2022 also corresponded with the end of a pandemic-era hiring binge, making it hard to isolate AI’s role in the hiring doldrums that followed.

        Fortune: https://fortune.com/2025/08/08/ai-layoffs-jobs-market-shrinks-entry-level/

        Note that these are all very recent, but the data they reference goes back to the debut of ChatGPT.

        • MagicShel@lemmy.zip
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          5 hours ago

          2022 was the year a Trump tax law took delayed effect that hugely impacted the cost of software developers and similar IT roles — we are no longer R&D investment for tax purposes. You’re right that it’s impossible to disentangle AI numbers from that. You’re right that executive hype can hurt jobs even if the reality is they are shooting themselves in the foot.

          But the real deal is they are going to quickly find the most they can reduce headcount is 5-10% and most individual teams don’t get enough of a boost to cut even one team member, so even those numbers are (IMO) unlikely to be realized.